The Future of Coffee & Tea Exports to Europe

Coffee and tea are among East Africa’s best-known exports, but the European market is changing. Buyers increasingly want proof of origin, consistent quality, environmental responsibility and fair treatment throughout the supply chain. At the same time, climate change, high production costs and unstable commodity prices are creating new risks.

The future will therefore depend not only on how much coffee or tea East Africa can produce, but also on how effectively producers and exporters can differentiate, document and add value to it.

Quality and origin will become more important

Ethiopian, Kenyan, Rwandan, Ugandan and Tanzanian coffees have strong potential in Europe’s specialty segment. Buyers are interested in distinctive flavour profiles, single-origin products, estate coffees and carefully prepared micro-lots. According to CBI’s February 2026 assessment, European demand for specialty coffee continues to grow, supported partly by younger consumers’ interest in quality, sustainability and ethical sourcing. CBI European coffee trends

Tea exporters can follow a similar strategy. Kenya’s large-volume black-tea industry will remain important, but future opportunities also lie in orthodox tea, purple tea, green tea, herbal blends and products connected to a particular estate or region.

Traceability is becoming essential

Coffee falls within the scope of the EU Deforestation Regulation. European operators will need evidence that relevant products are legally produced, traceable to their production locations and not linked to land deforested after 31 December 2020. Current application dates are 30 December 2026 for large and medium operators and 30 June 2027 for most micro and small operators. European Commission

Although tea is not currently one of the core commodities covered by the EUDR, European tea buyers increasingly request comparable information about farm origin, labour conditions, pesticide use and environmental impact.

Producer organisations and exporters should therefore improve farm records, farmer identification, geolocation, lot separation and digital traceability. Dutch and European buyers should share the cost and technical responsibility instead of transferring the entire burden to smallholders.

More value can remain in East Africa

Much of the region’s coffee and tea still leaves in bulk form. Local grading, blending, packaging, branding and product development can retain more income in producing countries.

Promising possibilities include roasted single-origin coffee, coffee capsules, cold-brew ingredients, premium packaged tea, herbal infusions and gift products. Not every exporter should begin with a consumer brand: supplying well-prepared green coffee or speciality tea directly to European businesses can also create stronger margins and relationships.

Climate resilience will influence supply

Changing rainfall, rising temperatures, pests and extreme weather threaten both crops. Producers will need climate-resilient varieties, better soil and water management, shade systems, crop diversification and improved weather information. Buyers can support this transition through longer purchasing commitments, pre-financing and investment in farmer training.

Coffee prices have risen sharply and remain volatile. Higher market prices do not automatically create higher farmer incomes because yields, labour costs, financing and intermediary costs also matter. CBI expects climate pressure and growing demand to contribute to more frequent price spikes. CBI European coffee trends

Cooperation will determine the future

The most successful value chains will connect farmers, cooperatives, exporters, Dutch importers, roasters, tea companies, researchers and technology providers. Their shared priorities should be quality, traceability, climate resilience, transparent pricing and a fairer distribution of value.

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Are you a farmer, exporter, importer, roaster, tea specialist or researcher? Tell us how the coffee and tea trade is changing. You can leave a comment, contribute an article, share a practical solution, or submit a detailed document for review and possible publication.